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Showing posts from July, 2026

On Markets and Milkshakes and Old Ghosts: Is AI On The Same Cycle as 3D Animation? The Milkshake IS the Thing

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  And you as well. What is your analysis of the competitive ai market given the companies that are releasing open weight models into the market both trained and untrained? Factor in the infrastructure requirements for local host and cloud hosting? Factor in development of systems where the platform uses the ai as an endpoint and not the application host vs those that use the ai as the application. I think we're watching the end of the "one AI company wins everything" narrative. Instead, I think the market is separating into three different businesses , each with different economics and different winners. 1. Frontier Intelligence Companies OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, and perhaps one or two Chinese labs. Their business is no longer merely "selling LLMs." Their product is continual pretraining reinforcement learning reasoning multimodal perception agents evaluation alignment inference optimization Their moat is billions of dollars of...

Abduction and the Kibitz: The Creative Power of Conversation

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  I built the QRS loop into the MCCF Dialogue Editors deliberately.  It is a driver of momentum in narrative when action isn't the main focus.  It also extends the MCCF beyond narrrative into real time exploration.  The kibitiz is vital, critical to creative thought.  - len      Do you agree that lack of abductive logic skills is a fundamental limit to discovery of new knowledge? https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/28024/ Yes—with an important qualification. I would not say that a lack of abductive reasoning is the fundamental limit to discovering new knowledge, but I do think it is one of the principal bottlenecks. Deduction and induction alone cannot generate many of the hypotheses that science ultimately tests. The classical distinction is: Deduction preserves truth. If the premises are true, the conclusion must be true. It unpacks what is already implicit. Induction generalizes from repeated observations. It tells us what is probably tr...