On Markets and Milkshakes and Old Ghosts: Is AI On The Same Cycle as 3D Animation? The Milkshake IS the Thing
And you as well. What is your analysis of the competitive ai market given the companies that are releasing open weight models into the market both trained and untrained? Factor in the infrastructure requirements for local host and cloud hosting? Factor in development of systems where the platform uses the ai as an endpoint and not the application host vs those that use the ai as the application. I think we're watching the end of the "one AI company wins everything" narrative. Instead, I think the market is separating into three different businesses , each with different economics and different winners. 1. Frontier Intelligence Companies OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, and perhaps one or two Chinese labs. Their business is no longer merely "selling LLMs." Their product is continual pretraining reinforcement learning reasoning multimodal perception agents evaluation alignment inference optimization Their moat is billions of dollars of...